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October newsletter – opening remarks

Europa Building, Brussels Photo from official website of European Union © 2014

Most visited pages

Andy Burnham has given the country permission to take a fresh look at the UK’s relationship with Europe. Although he has set a clear direction, the national conversation is still at the stage of ‘opening remarks’.

This seems to be confirmed by the four most-visited pages on Brexit FactBase, which suggest visitors are mainly checking out others’ opinions and recapping on the 2016 vote. They also turn to the UK’s financial contribution to the EU (there have been recent updates to the pages, so you may wish to take a fresh look):

Visitors’ focus on the UK’s contribution is partly a hangover from the 2016 campaign which concentrated on talking about the cost of membership (remember the bus?) while ignoring the larger, wide-ranging benefits of EU membership.

The lessons of ignoring the benefits have been learnt the hard way over the last few years. Most voters agree with Andy Burnham that Brexit has been a failure. There is also a solid majority for rejoining the EU, but its support is not unqualified.

Despite giving these views when pollsters ask for them, UK voters are not yet actively engaged in the EU question. The latest October 2026 Ipsos Key Issues Index placed EU/Europe/Brexit a long way down the list of voters’ concerns. Given other more pressing concerns combined with ‘long-Brexit’, their current disengagement is not surprising.

Upcoming EU-UK summit

The EU-UK leaders’ summit on 20 November will probably not move the dial. The summit, to be held at the Europa Building in Brussels, will take stock of progress made since the May 2025 summit.

Successful outcomes are expected on agri-food (SPS) rules, participation in the electricity market and emissions trading. These are important but principally technical issues that will probably not grab the public’s attention (unless they promise a tangible impact on the cost-of-living crisis). There may be further to go on youth mobility, but there are also rumours that freedom of movement will be discussed.

More important, the leaders will discuss the next steps in developing EU-UK relations. This should narrow down the available options for the future long-term relationship. The dramatic results in the US mid-terms create a timely opportunity for UK and EU leaders to show political courage. If they do, they may surprise us.

We will know soon enough because Andy Burnham has committed to announcing the options after the summit. At that point, the national conversation should really start to get underway.

Alberta referendum result

In other news from North America, Alberta voters overwhelmingly supported, by 75% to 25%. the idea of remaining a province of Canada, and said ‘no’ to starting the process for a separation referendum. The consequences of the Brexit referendum probably played a small part in the outcome (which I discussed with the Calgary Journal back in June).

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