Global trade growth
Global trade plays a key role in the economic health of developed nations and in growing the prosperity of developing nations. For its importance to the UK economy, please see “Why trade matters”.
Overall, global trade grew by $2.3 trillion in 2025, increasing by about 7% to a record of $35.2 trillion (Figure 5.1):
- trade in goods drove most of the expansion, growing by about 7% and adding roughly $1.6 trillion to global growth;
- trade in services grew by bout 9%, contributing about $700 billion to the total increase.
Although trade growth was widespread in 2025, it was stronger for developing economies in East Asia and Africa. South-South trade outpaced the global average, expanding by about 9% and underscoring the growing weight of developing economies on world trade.
Figure 5.1: Global trade in goods and services
In the first half of 2026, services trade growth has been losing momentum (see Figure 5.2). Note that the percentages are based on nominal figures:
- a significant share of the increase reflects higher prices rather than stronger trade volumes;
- disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, together with concerns over energy supplies, raised energy, transport, logistics and production costs.
Figure 5.2: Goods and services (Q2 2025 – Q1 2026)
AI and electric mobility support sectoral growth
UNCTAD found that:
“during the first quarter of 2026, demand for AI infrastructure, digital technologies and electric mobility drove strong growth in technology-intensive goods. Trade increased by 38% for critical minerals, 25% for semiconductors, 15% for batteries, 14% for ICT products, and 11% for electric vehicles.
By contrast, trade contracted in chemicals, iron and steel, and some renewable-energy products. Fossil-fuel trade increased largely because of higher prices.”
Figure 5.3: Growth in AI and electric vehicle-related goods
Sources:
UNCTAD, Key statistics and trends in international trade 2025, May 2026
UNCTAD, Global Trade Update (April 2026): Global trade growth continues, but fragility rises
UNCTAD, Global Trade Update (July/August 2026): Global trade continues to expand amid rising price pressures
Main players in global trade
The EU, China and the US dominate global trade in goods and services (see Table 5.1 and Figure 5.4) – trade is the sum of exports and imports. In 2024:
- EU (EUR 299 billion) and China (EUR 766 billion) both had trade surpluses and the US a trade deficit (EUR 823 billion) – Russia also had a trade surplus of EUR 154 billion;
- Due to their dominance, the EU27, the US, and increasingly China, have had a major influence over the standards that regulate world trade;
- UK ranked fourth, just ahead of Japan, with a small trade deficit of EUR19 billion.
Figure 5.4: Main players in world trade of goods and services (2024 – EUR bn)
See Table 5.1 for the detailed rankings:
- UK trade was €2.1 trillion, ranking above Japan and accounting for 4.2% of world trade.
- In terms of individual countries, the UK ranked:
- 5th for overall trade after the US, China, Germany (€3.8 trillion) and Netherlands (€2.1 trillion).
- 2nd for services trade after the US, level with China, and just ahead of Germany and Ireland.
- 11th for goods trade after China, US, Germany, Netherlands, Japan, France, Hong Kong, South Korea, Italy, Mexico, and just ahead of India and Canada.
Table 5.1: Main players in global trade of goods and services (2024)
First trade partners
Figure 5.5 shows the first trade partner in 2024 for trade of goods (merchandise) for each country:
- China is the first trade partner for India, Pakistan, Russia, Japan, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Australasia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, about half of Africa, and most of South America.
- EU is the first trade partner for US, China, UK and about half of Africa.
- US is the first trade partner for the EU, Mexico, Canada, Central America, Colombia.
Figure 5.5: First trade partner for trade in goods (2024)
Source: European Commission, DG Trade Statistical Guide, August 2025
Shares of global trade – trend
For trends in shares of world trade for EU27, China, Japan, UK and US from 2014 to 2024, see Figure 5.6:
- EU (excluding intra-EU trade) has had the top share in each year but its share over the last few years has been declining gently and was 15.8% in 2024.
- China’s share has grown consistently but has flattened in the last three years to 13.4%.
- US increased its share between up to 2016, then declined gradually until 2021 before rising to 13.6% in 2024.
- UK’s share was 4.6% in 2014, declining to 4.2% in 2024.
- Japan gradually declined more than the UK from a 4.7% share in 2014 to 3.6% in 2024.
Figure 5.6: Trends in share of global trade for EU, US, China and Japan (2014-2024)
Source: European Commission, DG Trade Statistical Guide, August 2025
Trade openness – trend
Most economies depend on trade with other nations. To assess ‘trade openness’ (or ‘trade intensity’) economists use the ratio of trade to GDP. The measure indicates how integrated a country is with the world economy. Trade openness tends to be higher in developing nations and lower for larger economies.
The global average ratio of trade to GDP for 2024 was 57%, slightly down from 58% in 2014.
Figure 5.7 shows the trend in trade openness for EU27, China, Japan, UK and US from 2014 to 2024.
- The UK had the highest trade openness throughout the period but it has been volatile. From 59.8% in 2014., it rose in 2019 to 64%, and, after a Covid decline, rose further to 70.2% in 2022 before dropping to 66.6% in 2024.
- By 2024, the EU’s trade openness had risen to 46%, ahead of the US, Japan and China.
- China’s trade openness had declined from 47.1% in 2014 to 34.6% by 2024 as its economy has grown and domestic consumption of domestic products has increased.
- Japan started at 38% in 2014 and followed a volatile path to arrive at 42.5% by 2024.
- The US economy has been the least open to trade and its openness declined slowly from 29.7% in 2014 to 26.4% in 2024.
Figure 5.7: Trend in trade openness (2014 – 2024)
