The best indication of expectations post-referendum comes from a poll immediately after the Brexit vote in July 2016 of 1,004 adults, which ComRes conducted for the BBC (Figure 17.11).
Figure 17.11: Brexit expectations in 2016 – BBC summary of ComRes poll
The poll’s key findings about expectations were as follows:
- Two thirds (66%) of British adults thought maintaining access to the single market should be the government priority when negotiating the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. One third (31%) said the priority should be restricting freedom of movement.
- On the single market:
- one fifth (18%) expected to stay in the single market with unrestrained freedom of movement;
- one quarter (26%) expected to leave the single market and stop freedom of movement;
- half (52%) expected to stay in the single market with some limits on freedom of movement.
- On immigration:
- half of British adults (52%) expected immigration to fall after Brexit;
- one third (36%) expected levels of immigration to remain about the same;
- almost half (45%) said they would be dissatisfied if the government continued to allow immigration from the EU in exchange for access to the single market.
- On the economy, over the medium term:
- half (52%) thought that the economy would be in a better place;
- one third (30%) thought it would be worse.
- Three quarters (72%) did not trust politicians to do a good job of carrying out the will of the people during withdrawal from the EU, while half (50%) did not trust civil servants.
- Around a quarter of Britons (25%) thought it was likely that the UK would be a member of the EU in ten years’ time.