Original timeline
The original partnership timeline to negotiate the new EU/UK relationship (see Figure 14.1) reflected the EU’s envisaged milestones in the Withdrawal Agreement. Beginning on 1 February and ending on 31 December 2020, the timeline included two months for parliamentary approvals and member-state ratification. This meant that the time available for negotiation was only about nine months (assuming no extension to the transition period).
However, negotiations would continue after 31 December 2020 to deal with any outstanding issues. In addition, the need to implement new processes, systems and procedures meant it would take years for the partnership to be fully operational.
At the time, most observers believed that the UK and the EU would agree an extension to the transition period because of COVID-19, which had:
- impeded negotiations and had become the dominant concern for the UK and EU27 governments.
- already caused a severe economic contraction
- made it seem unlikely that both parties would want to inflict even more economic damage through a poorly-negotiated trade deal.
Nevertheless, despite pressure from business and opposition parties, the government refused to request an extension.
Figure 14.1 summarises the original timeline. The main items that caused delays were fisheries, state aid and the level playing field, but the scope remained the same even as deadlines slipped. In parallel, there were delays in implementing the Withdrawal Agreement.
Figure 14.1: EU/UK partnership timeline (original version)
Key events in the negotiation
The key events in the negotiation were as follows:
1 February 2020 – transition period begins.
2 – 5 March – first round of negotiations took place in Brussels.
- Subsequent full negotiating rounds would take place every two to three weeks, alternating between London and Brussels. However, due to the impact of COVID-19, the next three rounds were by video conference:
- Round 2: 20 – 24 April
- Round 3: 11 – 15 May
- Round 4: 2 – 5 June
15 June – UK and EU review progress to find they had achieved little:
- UK had not undertaken the work necessary to support a decision by the EU on equivalence in financial services;
- there was no agreement on fisheries;
- there was no draft trade agreement.
UK and EU agree to intensify negotiations in July, beginning with
29 June to 3 July – Round 5 of face-to-face negotiations in Brussels from
30 June – deadline to request an extension to the transition period passes.
Aiming for the European Council meeting in October, four subsequent rounds took place:
- Round 6: 21 – 23 July
- Round 7: 17 – 21 August
- Round 8: 7 – 11 September
- Round 9: 28 September – 2 October
15 – 16 October – European Council meeting expressed concern that progress on the key issues of interest to the Union is still not sufficient for an agreement.
16 October – Prime Minister makes a statement suspending the future-relationship negotiations and concluding that the UK should prepare for an Australian-style trade deal based on simple principles of global free trade.
21 October – Prime Minister delivers a statement on further UK-EU negotiations, inviting the EU team to London to resume negotiations later in the week. Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the Plenary Session of the European Parliament, updating MEPs on the progress of Brexit negotiations.
22 – 25 October – tenth formal round with discussions on a new deal.
5 December – Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen speak by phone and later issue a statement on the progress of negotiations. They note significant differences remain on three issues: level playing field, governance and fisheries.
20 December – UK-EU negotiations go past the deadline set by the European Parliament to organise a consent vote on an agreement before the end of the year.
24 December – UK and EU reach agreement on the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement.
31 December – Brexit transition period ends at 11pm. UK leaves the EU single market and customs union, and EU law ceases to apply to the UK.