Threats to security

In this section, we summarise EU and UK views of the threats to security that they face. The EU’s assessment is more detailed and specific than the UK’s view.

Given the cross-border nature of many of these threats, addressing them requires international collaboration, cooperation and responses.

EU view

The EU’s Strategic Compass identified a multifaceted, interconnected, and rapidly evolving threat landscape, centred on:

• Russia as the most immediate military threat;
• China as a systemic rival;
• growing instability in the EU’s neighbouring regions;
• hybrid, cyber, terrorist, economic, and climate‑driven risks.

Together, these threats reflect what the document calls a more hostile security environment requiring stronger EU resilience, capabilities, and partnerships.

1. Revanchist Russia and war in Europe
   • Russia as a direct and persistent threat to the EU, its neighbours, and the wider European security order;
   • its war of aggression against Ukraine and military pressure around the EU’s eastern and southern neighbourhood are central concerns;
   • Russia’s intervention in places like Syria, Libya, and the Sahel also destabilises the EU’s southern periphery.
2. Strategic competition and systemic rivalry with China
   • China as a partner, economic competitor, and systemic rival;
   • China’s growing geopolitical influence and potential alignment with Russia, as well as risks related to technology, trade, and security dependencies.
3. Instability and conflict in the EU neighbourhood
   • EU is “surrounded by instability and conflicts” in multiple regions;
   • key hotspots include:
     • Eastern Mediterranean tensions
     • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
     • Sahel and Central Africa, where terrorism, weak governance, and poverty create a “dangerous mix” of threats.
4. Hybrid threats and foreign interference
   • hybrid threats are increasingly frequent, impactful, and sophisticated;
   • foreign information manipulation;
   • disinformation;
   • cyberattacks (including on critical infrastructure);
   • economic and energy coercion;
   • technological and data dependencies;
   • the Compass includes a toolbox specifically designed to counter this broad range of hybrid threats.
5. Cyber threats
   • rise in cyberattacks:
     • increasingly targeted at critical infrastructure;
     • often linked to hostile states or state-backed actors.
6. Terrorism
   • remains a major cross-border threat, particularly in fragile regions around Europe;
   • the Compass underscores the persistent threat from extremist groups and the need for enhanced counter‑terrorism tools.
7. Climate change and environmental crises
   • climate change as a threat multiplier, exacerbating instability, resource scarcity, humanitarian crises, and security challenges.
8. Pandemics and health security risks
   • while not a primary focus, the Compass names pandemics as part of the spectrum of broader global threats that undermine resilience and security.
9. Contesting of global commons
   • increasing contesting of access to high seas, outer space, and the digital sphere:
     • strategic domains are under pressure from military build-ups, technological competition, and weaponisation of interdependence (e.g., energy, data, standards).

UK view

According to the UK National Security Strategy 2025, the UK faces an era of radical uncertainty, marked by intensifying geopolitical and domestic risks.

The UK identified eight principal threat categories:

1. Intensifying great-power competition and geopolitical volatility leading to a higher prospect of confrontation with adversaries, including:
   • indirect and potentially direct confrontation with hostile states;
   • rising strategic and systemic competition with other powers;
   • increasing difficulty in international cooperation, even as cooperation becomes more vital.
2. Threats from hostile states including:
   • Russian aggression, which continues to menace European security;
   • hostile-state activity on British soil, including espionage, sabotage, cyber intrusions, and influence operations;
   • greater salience of nuclear threats in adversaries’ doctrines.
3. Rapid technological change including risks from:
   • cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure and government systems;
   • foreign information manipulation and interference;
   • exploitation of advanced technologies (AI, cyber tools, autonomous systems) by hostile states and non‑state actors.
4. Terrorism and extremism from the ongoing rise of extremist ideologies, both domestic and international, which continue to threaten UK public safety.
5. Threats to UK territory, borders and public safety including:
   • risks to territorial integrity;
   • internal security challenges including organised crime, extremism, and threats to democratic institutions;
   • illegal migration pressures that carry national‑security implications.
6. Economic security risks and coercion from adversaries who aim to weaken or pressure the UK through greater willingness to use:
   • economic coercion;
   • disruptions to supply chains;
   • manipulation of critical resources.
7. Global conflict and instability
   • decisions relating to global flashpoints pose direct spillover risks;
   • Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Indo‑Pacific region are crucial to UK security, with instability in these regions posing direct spillover risks.
8. Erosion of international norms and collective security contributing to a more dangerous world for the UK.
   • “radical renegotiation” of the rules governing how states cooperate, with:
     • fraying alliances;
     • growing distrust;
     • increased strategic uncertainty.

Sources:

Strategic Compass of the European Union, March 2022
National Security Strategy 2025: Security for the British People in a Dangerous World, August 2025