Trade balance
The UK trade surplus with non-EU countries has grown relative to UK GDP since 2000 to reach 1.8% of GDP in 2024 (see Figure 5.11). By contrast, the trade deficit with the EU has also expanded, mainly since 2011, to -3.6% of GDP in 2024. The temporary recovery during 2020 and 2021 was due to the effects of Covid.
The majority of UK trade was either with the EU or with non-EU countries that have trade deals with the EU (see the section UK-EU trade for more details). Note that the growth in the non-EU trade balance (less than 1% of GDP until 2007) shows that EU membership did not stop the UK from growing trade with non-EU countries.
Unsurprisingly, after the post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement began in early 2021, the UK’s trade deficit with the EU grew faster than GDP. Non-EU trade also dipped, but not as steeply, and is still below its 2018 level.
Figure 5.11: UK balance of trade (goods and services) with EU and non-EU countries
Sources:
ONS, Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted, 13 November 2025
ONS, Breakdown of trade data, 30 September 2025
Current or real prices?
Always check the basis behind any trade statistics!
When looking at trends in trade figures, economists often use statistics in constant (or ‘real’) prices: they remove inflation. This is because the inflation included in Current Prices (‘CP’) does not create any value and distorts comparisons between different periods. ONS refers to real prices as Chained Volume Measures (‘CVM’):
- Chained Volume Measures are a “real” measure in that they have had the effect of inflation removed by fixing the prices of goods and services to a base year. The resultant figures measure the ‘change in volume’ between periods, not the change in prices.
- Current Prices measure the actual price paid for goods or services and are not adjusted for inflation. Unless otherwise stated, all current price data are provided in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.
Current prices are best used for analysing trade for a single period. (such as 2024). Be warned that politicians often prefer to use current prices for trends because they show growth due to inflation.
Another distortion in UK goods trade figures relates to precious metals. Precious-metal transactions (non-monetary gold and silver, platinum etc.) can involve £ billions and their prices are volatile. However, these imports and exports do not impact UK GDP because they do not physically move goods but involve change of ownership. As a result, it’s usually better to exclude precious metals from goods trade statistics.
Please also note that ONS changed its methodology for collecting statistics on goods trade with the EU in 2021. The ONS estimates that this change increased reported exports to the EU by around 5% from 2021 onwards, and reported imports by around 6% from 2022 onwards. These material changes should be taken into account when comparing post-2021 UK-EU goods trade with pre-Brexit and pre-TCA figures.
How big is the effect of inflation?
Figure 5.12 shows how inflation and precious metals have affected recent export figures.
- In 2024, current price exports of goods and services were £894 billion, including precious metals, but, in constant prices, exports were only £879 billion. Inflation added £10 billion and precious metals £5 billion over the equivalent CVM figure.
- This is a relatively small inflation difference because the current base year is 2023. The inflation gap between CVM and current prices will widen over time.
Trade statistics may be revised. The ONS updates and refines its estimates for trade flows, so the latest ONS figures may differ from previous ones. See Appendix B for supporting tables of ONS trade statistics.
Alternative estimates for trade are available, such as those of Comtrade at the UN.
Figure 5.12: Current prices, chained volume measures and precious metals
Sources:
ONS, Breakdown of trade, 30 September 2025
ONS, UK trade in goods, year in review: 2023, 1 March 2024
ONS, Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021, 22 January 2024
Goods and services balances
In 2024, the UK’s overall trade was £1,797 billion (Current Prices, excluding precious metals), split 54% Non-EU and 46% EU (see Table 5.4 and Figure 5.13). The EU was, by far, the UK’s biggest single trading partner.
The UK had a total trade deficit of £22 billion in 2024 reflecting:
- a deficit in goods trade of £207 billion offset by a surplus of £186 billion in services;
- a deficit of £92 billion with the EU and a non-EU surplus of £70 billion:
- with the EU, services produced a £42 billion surplus and goods a £134 billion deficit;
- with the non-EU, services produced an £143 billion surplus and goods a £74 billion deficit.
- manufacturing plays a critical role in exports to the EU (£181 billion in goods matches £186 billion in services) and a major role in non-EU exports (£200 billion vs £321 billion);
- role of manufacturing in UK trade is much greater than implied by its small 9% share of overall economic output (see section on economic context).
Table 5.4: UK trade balance in 2024
2024 EU/non-EU trade (£m - current prices)
EU Non-EU Total
Total trade (exports+imports) 824 973 1,797
45.8% 54.2%
Goods
Exports 181 200 381
Imports -314 -274 -588
Balance -134 -74 -207
Services 186 321 507
Exports 186 321 507
Imports -143 -178 -322
Balance 42 143 186
Total
Exports 366 522 888
Imports -458 -452 -910
Balance -92 70 -22
Source: ONS
Figure 5.13 shows the EU and non-EU trade profiles for 2024 by goods, services, imports and exports. Some key points to note:
- UK depends on the EU for imports of goods supplied to manufacturers and consumers – accounting for 38.8% of EU trade.
- Services exports are the dominant component of non-EU trade, accounting for 32% and were only slightly higher than goods imports of 29.3%.
- Services imports account for similar proportions of EU (17.2%) and non-EU trade (18.1%).
- Goods exports account for similar proportions of EU (22.1%) and non-EU trade (20.7%).
Figure 5.13 Breakdown of 2024 trade
UK trade trends – EU/non-EU
Points to note on the trend in EU/non-EU share include (see Figure 5.14):
- Recent movement in EU/non-EU shares is mainly due to Brexit making trade with the EU more difficult. In addition, the German and French economies have been underperforming.
- Non-EU share of UK trade has been growing since 2006 and has been over 50% since 2008.
- Its previous lows were in 2002 (45.0%) and 2006 (45.9%).
- Before Brexit, in 2015, the non-EU share stood at 51.6%.
- In 2018, it was 51% – the last stable year of trade before Brexit negotiations and then Covid disrupted trade patterns.
- By 2024, the non-EU share was 54.1%.
- EU share of UK trade dropped from 49% in 2018 to 45.9% in 2024.
Figure 5.14: EU and non-EU shares of trade
UK trade trends – goods and services
Some key observations on the trends in exports and imports of goods and services are (see Table 5.4 and Figure 5.15):
- Goods
- Exports grew progressively from 2010 to hit a high in 2018 of £438 billion but have declined since then to £384 billion in 2024.
- Imports have grown each year since 2010 (apart from 2020 and 2021) to £608 billion in 2024.
- Goods trade deficit reached a new peak in 2024 of £223 billion.
- Services
- Exports grew progressively since 2010 (apart from 2020 and 2021) to reach a high point of £494 billion in 2024.
- Imports followed a similar pattern rising to £318 billion in 2024, causing the services trade surplus to reach a new high of £176 billion.
- Trade balance
- Net trade balance has been in deficit since 2014, growing gradually to £48 billion in 2024 as the goods trade deficit has grown faster than the services surplus.
Appendix B contains the data tables for this chart.
Figure 5.15: Trend in exports and imports of goods and services
Source: ONS, Breakdown of trade, 30 September 2025
Importance of gravity
Countries trade the most with their nearest neighbours. As a rule of thumb, the data shows that trade between economies of equal size halves with a doubling of distance.
Trade economists have developed ‘gravity models’ based on the relationship between trade, size of economy and distance to model likely volumes of trade between countries.
There are trading opportunities for smaller economies with distant, larger economies that can mitigate the effect of distance (like the US and China). History, culture, legal systems and language can also facilitate trade with distant countries (such as between the UK and Australia or Canada).
Hover over the bubbles on the interactive chart at Figure 5.16, which maps UK exports and distance. You will find the UK’s exports are concentrated on nearest neighbours, with the notable exception of the US, because its economy is so much bigger than the UK’s. The ONS chart uses exports of goods and services for 2016.
Some Brexiters criticise gravity models, but trade specialists and academics assert that the predictive powers of gravity models show that they are robust. See, for example, this report from PwC in 2017:
Figure 5.16: UK exports by distance
Top UK trading partners
The UK’s top 10 trading partners accounted for 60.7% of total trade in 2024 with 60.1% of exports and 61.3% of imports. The US with 17.8% of total trade and Germany with 8.2% were the two largest partners. The EU27 accounted for 45.6% of total trade (based on ONS statistics in current prices and including precious metals).
At the level of individual countries, partners that receive high exports tend to provide high imports, indicating the benefits of reciprocal trading relationships (see Figure 5.17). The same patterns applies to goods and services trade where the rank ordering of partners is broadly similar.
Other points to note include:
- UK’s top ten trading partners were all neighbours in Europe except for the US and China.
- On UK exports:
- The US was the top UK individual export destination, accounting for 16.9% of goods exports and 26.7% of services exports.
- Germany was the second most important export market with 8.4% of goods exports and 5.8% of services exports.
- On UK imports:
- China was the second most important source of goods imports (accounting for 11.3%, just behind Germany on 12.2%).
- For imports of services, the US was the top source (19.9%), followed by Spain (6.8%) and France (6.3% ). Services imports include expenditure by UK citizens on travel abroad.
Figure 5.17: Top 10 trading partners
Source: ONS, UK total trade: all countries, non-seasonally adjusted, 24 October 2025
Top UK goods categories
The UK’s top 17 goods categories in 2024 (those with over £20 billion of trade) accounted for £262 billion or 68% of exports and £367 billion or 62% of imports.
Figure 5.18 shows the imports and exports of the top categories.
- The top import by some distance was food and live animals at £56 billion with exports of £18 billion, leading to a trade deficit of £38 billion.
- The next top import was cars, at £44 billion, with exports of £33 billion and a trade deficit of £12 billion (the difference of £1 billion is due to rounding).
- Thirteen of the 17 had a trade deficit. The four exceptions enjoying a trade surplus were:
- medicinal and pharmaceutical products: £41 billion exports vs £27 billion imports, surplus £14 billion;
- mechanical power generation (intermediate): £33 billion vs imports of £23 billion, surplus £10 billion;
- aircraft: exports of £12.6 billion, imports of £11.2 billion;
- beverages and tobacco: exports of £11.9 billion vs imports of £11.6 billion.
As Figure 5.18 implies, imports and exports are often interlinked. Over two-thirds of UK goods and services exports are of intermediate components for overseas producers. The interconnected nature of global trade means that a country’s imports and exports cannot be treated as independent quantities, as the Institute for Fiscal Studies observed. The IFS estimated that over half of UK goods and services imports from the EU were inputs to UK production of goods and services.
If you would like to dig deeper, go to ‘Interactive tools’ to interrogate the ONS trade data by trade partner and by commodity.
Figure 5.18: Top UK goods categories
Sources:
Institute of Fiscal Studies, Firms’ supply chains form an important part of UK-EU trade: what does this mean for future trade policy? 8 January 2018
ONS, Trade publication tables, 13 November 2025
Top UK services categories
In 2024, the UK had a trade surplus in services of £186 billion from exports of £507 billion and imports of £301 billion (in current prices). The top 10 services categories (shown in Figure 5.1) accounted for 89% of services exports and 87% of imports.
Three categories stood out as the most important contributors to the UK’s services trade surplus in services:
- financial services generated a surplus of £74 billion, with exports of £94 billion and imports of £20 billion;
- legal, accounting, management consultancy and public relations generated a surplus of £41 billion from exports of £63 billion and imports of £22 billion;
- telecoms, computer and information services contributed a surplus of £29 billion from exports of £47 billion and imports of £18 billion.
For transportation services and services through affiliates, exports and imports were roughly equal.
Travel was the only category with a trade deficit, of £16 billion, which was due to more UK travel abroad than inbound travellers.
Figure 5.19: Top UK services categories
Source:
ONS, UK trade in services: service type by partner country, non-seasonally adjusted, 24 October 2025