This section summarises, at a high level, the expected impacts of Brexit on the UK economy and the EU. The next section describes in detail the expected UK impacts for industry sectors and regions.
The earlier section on economic context looks at the actual Brexit impacts on the UK economy.
Before Brexit, the consensus among reputable economic forecasters, including the Government and HM Treasury, was that the UK would be poorer with Brexit than it would be without it. However views differed on ‘by how much?’
Covid-19 arrived at the beginning of the transition-period negotiations, which meant economists then had to consider the combined effects.
In 2022, the Johnson government ignored the economic impacts to produce a paper that aimed to persuade the reader of the benefits of Brexit.