The tenth anniversary of the Brexit vote has been a time to reflect. Various events, TV programmes, articles and books have marked the occasion. Most of these look back, but the story is all too familiar. I prefer the forward-looking approach of organisations like the European Movement and its realistic optimism.
To mark the milestone, three sections have updates: economic context, UK trade and Brexit impact, and investment. These follow on from an update to immigration last month.
As a small contribution to realism, here’s three salient facts:
- 55% of British voters back rejoining the EU, 34% are opposed and 11% undecided (YouGov poll in June 2026). With don’t knows removed, that’s 62% vs 38% – a staggering margin of 24% in favour of rejoining compared to a 4% margin in favour of Brexit in 2016.
- although it’s accepted that the UK is worse off as a result of leaving the EU, views differ on by how much. Most estimates are greater than the long-established OBR figure of a 4% hit to GDP. Even if the OBR’s lower figure is right, Brexit has reduced current annual GDP (of just under £3 trillion in nominal terms) by about £120 billion a year. As a result, tax revenues flowing into the public finances have shrunk by £46 billion (overall tax revenues are roughly 38% of GDP).
- joining the EU could, in theory, reverse this and increase tax revenues by about £900 million a week. Assuming a contribution to the EU of 0.4% of GDP (i.e. £12 billion a year) joining the EU could generate over £650 million per week for the government. The featured image above imagines, with the help of AI, how this might look on a bus.
The potential gains are enormous. Although the arithmetic is clear, the politics are complex.
Across the Atlantic, in Canada, populist simplicity is proposing independence for Alberta. In October 2026, voters in land-locked Alberta, will be deciding whether they would like to start the process for a referendum to make their province independent from the rest of Canada. I had an interesting conversation with Lauren Krugel of the Canadian Press on the lessons from Brexit, published in the Calgary Journal. Let’s hope they learn from our mistakes.