Briefing papers/articles

Section contents

1. Briefing papers

Comments: . . .Prof Chris Grey (RHUL): “This briefing on what a no-deal/WTO Brexit means (reviewed by several leading experts) really should be compulsory reading for every MP & every journalist covering Brexit”…..Prof Judith Freedman (Oxford): (On UK trade and the WTO briefing) “Best explainer on tariffs, WTO etc that I have seen”……
‘No deal’ and WTO rules (February 2019)

This is a briefing for non-specialists on what ‘going WTO’ with no deal would mean from a trade perspective.

In passing, it deals with the myths associated with Article 24 of GATT.

The paper reflects contributions from Dr. Lorand Bartels, Sir Martin Donnelly, Peter Ungphakorn and Professor L Alan Winters CB.

Gina Miller suggested I write the paper. Her ‘End the Chaos’ and Lead not Leave’ campaigns published branded versions of this article on their websites.

UK trade and the World Trade Organisation (September 2018)

This is an extensive 77-page briefing for non-specialists on UK trade and the trade options for the UK with Brexit. 

An outstanding team of experts contributed to the paper, including Sir Martin Donnelly, Andrew Sentance CBE, Professor L Alan Winters CB, George Peretz QC and Professor George Yarrow.

2. Articles

‘No deal’ – are the people right? (April 2019)

This article asks what will happen more widely with no deal. It looks beyond trade and the economy to security and health. 

“an enemy of the Uk would regard the wide-ranging damage from ‘no deal’ as a major victory”

Challenges with Common Market 2.0 (March 2019, updated)

This article summarises the proposal from Nick Boles MP and others for an EEA-style arrangement between the UK and the EU after Brexit. It also assesses the challenges and questions whether there is any benefit in this approach compared to EEU membership.

George Peretz QC, who advised on Common Market 2.0, kindly reviewed this article.

What trading on WTO terms alone really means for Britain (November 2018)

This short article was published on the UK Trade Forum and summarises some of the key implications of WTO rules for the UK. It is based on the September 2018 paper.

3. Presentations and summaries

Your clients and Brexit – presentation to the Richmond Group (11 May 2019)

These are the slides used to support a one-hour discussion on Brexit with the Richmond Group of independent management consultants.



Summary facts from Brexit FactBase (18 May 2019)

This Pdf download captures the bullet point summaries from the sections of the Brexit FactBase.

Ideal if you need a list of Brexit talking points/prompts.


50 simple chunks of Brexit reality for MPs  (19 January 2019)

Based on an excellent Twitter thread by Steve Bullock (@GuitarMoog), this provides a summary of key Brexit points.



4. EU Election Modeller

EU Election Modeller (21 May 2019)  Click to download your copy.

This is a simple-to-use Excel spreadsheet model that allows you to input scenarios for vote shares by party for regions.

You can use this to input poll data or your own forecasts. The model then automatically calculates how many seats each party wins. It’s a great way to brings the proportional voting system alive.

The model is loaded with regional data for the 2014 results, the ComRes poll of 9 May 2019 and the Best for Britain poll of 18 May and the ComRes poll of 21 May.

For a description of the voting system for the European elections, please click here.

One thing is clear: voter turnout is key. So, please make sure you and your friends vote!