Generated by All in One SEO Pro v5.0.0.1, this is an llms.txt file, used by LLMs to index the site. # Brexit FactBase Awesome resource of Brexit facts ## Sitemaps - [XML Sitemap](https://brexitfactbase.com/sitemap.xml): Contains all public & indexable URLs for this website. ## Posts - [July newsletter - territories and treaties](https://brexitfactbase.com/news/july-newsletter-territories-and-treaties/) - July newsletter - territories & treaties. Ceuta & Morocco. Gibraltar, UK, Spain & the EU. TCA & the Crown Dependencies (Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man). - [June newsletter - ten years after](https://brexitfactbase.com/news/june-newsletter-ten-years-after/) - June newsletter - [May newsletter - perception and reality](https://brexitfactbase.com/news/may-newsletter/) - May newsletter - updated section on immigration, noting the gap between the public perception that immigration is increasing and the reality of sharp falls. - [April newsletter - Credit to the Suisse](https://brexitfactbase.com/news/april-newsletter-credit-to-the-suisse/) - April newsletter - Credit to the Suisse My blog explores if EU-Swiss deal could be a way forward. Best for Britain report & YouGov poll views on UK-EU relations - [The road to the summit runs through Switzerland](https://brexitfactbase.com/news/the-road-to-the-summit-runs-through-switzerland/) - The road to the summit runs through Switzerland. For more ambitious EU-UK relationship — w/out rejoining single market/customs union — consider new EU-CH deal. - [Sir Keir Starmer’s Brexit blind spot](https://brexitfactbase.com/news/sir-keir-starmers-brexit-blind-spot/) - Sir Keir Starmer’s Brexit blind spot. Instead of focussing on technical tweaks to the trade deal, the UK should grasp the bigger picture. - [The Red-Tape Curtain](https://brexitfactbase.com/news/the-red-tape-curtain/) - After Churchill’s iron curtain, a red-tape curtain descended: the deluge of restrictions and regulations that saddle firms after the UK’s departure from the EU. - [March newsletter - Timing is everything](https://brexitfactbase.com/news/march-newsletter-timing-is-everything/) - Timing is everything. Welcome to the first Brexit FactBase newsletter. For those who recognise that the UK-EU relationship is fundamental to the UK's well-being - [Trump’s embrace of Putin should….](https://brexitfactbase.com/news/trumps-embrace-of-putin-should/) - Trump’s embrace of Putin should push UK and EU closer. To increase defence spending, there's only one option: a major reset of the UK-EU trading relationship. ## Pages - [Home](https://brexitfactbase.com/) - Brexit FactBase:“awesome resource” of Brexit facts gathered from reputable sources Great reviews: “excellent” “full of factful factiness” "a journalist’s dream" - [Aviation](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-2-expected-impacts-sectors-and-regions/aviation/) - Aviation: pre-Brexit position and expected impact of Brexit. - [Financial and professional services](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-2-expected-impacts-sectors-and-regions/financial-and-professional-services/) - Financial and professional services: pre-Brexit position and expected impact of Brexit. - [Manufacturing](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-2-expected-impacts-sectors-and-regions/manufacturing/) - Manufacturing: pre-Brexit position and expected impact of Brexit. - [Views on economic impact](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-impact-assessment/economic-impact/) - Consensus view.of economic impact. Methodology. The range of estimates. A word on the outlier. - [Northern Ireland Protocol](https://brexitfactbase.com/13-negotiations-to-31-january-2020/northern-ireland-protocol/) - Northern Ireland Protocol was key to finalising WA. Johnson’s proposals were unworkable. Final deal for: customs territory, level playing field, VAT, & consent. - [UK-EU trade](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-2-trade/uk-eu-trade/) - UK-EU trade: importance of EU of UK trade; trade trends; import & export linkages; trade with EU by commodity & by service category; EU trade-deal coverage; GSP - [Freedom of Movement](https://brexitfactbase.com/6-immigration/freedom-of-movement/) - Freedom of Movement Directive meant border controls for UK. EU rules and controls mean Schengen is not a ‘free pass’ to refugees. Posted worker loophole closed. - [Is there a democratic deficit?](https://brexitfactbase.com/1-what-is-the-eu/democratic-deficit/) - Assessing the EU democratic deficit: citizens attitudes to the EU; Lisbon Treaty & QMV; voter perceptions; media and Euromyths; voter interest in MEP elections - [MEPs and influence](https://brexitfactbase.com/1-what-is-the-eu/meps-and-influence/) - MEPs and influence. Voting. Political Groupings. Commission proposals. UK influence & opt-outs: UK Civil Service influence, placements. Pre-Brexit decline. - [A. Referendum analysis](https://brexitfactbase.com/appendices/a-referendum-analysis/) - Appendix A. Referendum analysis. 2016 electorate and result. What if fewer had abstained? 2016 vs 1975 referendum. Was 2016 the largest UK democratic exercise? - [Gibraltar: UK-EU treaty](https://brexitfactbase.com/16-eu-uk-agreement/gibraltar-uk-eu-treaty/) - UK-EU Treaty on Gibraltar signed 14 July 2026 and then provisionally applied. Freedom of circulation of goods and people. Ratification. Constitutional status. - [Crown Dependencies and Gibraltar](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-2-expected-impacts-sectors-and-regions/crown-dependencies/) - Crown Dependencies & Gibraltar: constitutional status; pre-Brexit relationships with UK & EU. Expected Brexit impacts: less severe for CDs than UK and Gibraltar - [TCA and Crown Dependencies](https://brexitfactbase.com/16-eu-uk-agreement/tca-and-the-crown-dependencies/) - TCA and Crown Dependencies. Protocol 3 replaced. New provisions for tariff-free and quota-free trade for qualifying goods. Overall, CDs less integrated with EU. - [Package and approval](https://brexitfactbase.com/16-eu-uk-agreement/principal-documents/) - Package of agreements. Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). Approval and scrutiny - EU. Approval and scrutiny - UK. - [Governance of the TCA](https://brexitfactbase.com/16-eu-uk-agreement/governance/) - Institutional framework. Parliamentary scrutiny. Review of implementation. Dispute resolution. Rebalancing measures. Termination. - [TCA vs EU membersip](https://brexitfactbase.com/16-eu-uk-agreement/main-changes-compared-to-eu-membership/) - Summary The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), the Withdrawal Agreement and the Windsor Framework underpin the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU. On 31 December 2020 left the EU, which meant: the UK lost all rights and obligations of being an EU Member State its nationals and businesses no longer benefit from free movement of - [New border controls](https://brexitfactbase.com/16-eu-uk-agreement/border-operations/) - Brexit change, Border Target Operating Model (BTOM) and phasing, consequences - [Movement of people & data](https://brexitfactbase.com/16-eu-uk-agreement/movement-of-people/) - Movement of people and movement of data - [Windsor Framework](https://brexitfactbase.com/16-eu-uk-agreement/windsor-framework/) - Windsor Framework. GB-Northern Ireland. Green vs red lane. Parcels exemption. Customs data sharing. Independent review-2025: democratic deficit; simplifications - [16. TCA: EU-UK trade agreement](https://brexitfactbase.com/16-eu-uk-agreement/) - TCA vs EU membership. Package and approval. Governance. Movement of people and data. Windsor Framework. Border operations. Looking to the future. - [TCA impacts on goods](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-2-trade/brexit-impact/) - TCA impact on goods trade. Post-Brexit trade barriers for exports to EU and imports to UK. Rules of origin (RoO) - automotive sector as an RoO example. - [Financial settlement](https://brexitfactbase.com/3-eu-budget-and-uk-contribution/financial-settlement/) - Financial settlement. Principles. Calculation. Total £30.2 billion - UK share of EU commitments prior to Brexit. Most already settled but payments end in 2065. - [Article 50 and Article 127](https://brexitfactbase.com/2-sovereignty-and-law/articles-50-and-127/) - Article 50 of the Lisbon Agreement and Article 127 of the EEA Agreement. - [Cameron renegotiation](https://brexitfactbase.com/2-sovereignty-and-law/cameron-renegotiation/) - Cameron renegotiation. Aims included protect single market, exempt UK from 'ever closer political union'. Outcomes: UK exempted, euro, immigration, competition - [European Court of Human Rights](https://brexitfactbase.com/1-what-is-the-eu/european-court-of-human-rights/) - European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) is separate from EU. Set up in 1959 by Council of Europe (46 members). European Convention on Human Rights. Other bodies. - [EU presidents](https://brexitfactbase.com/1-what-is-the-eu/eu-presidents/) - EU presidents. Facilitative roles, like ‘Chair of the Board’ rather than executive roles (e.g. US president). 2024 changes. Current presidents, roles and terms. - [EU institutions](https://brexitfactbase.com/1-what-is-the-eu/eu-institutions/) - EU institutions. EU institutional framework. Seven main institutions, supporting bodies. European Court of Auditors, sign-off of EU accounts, EU staffing levels - [Publications](https://brexitfactbase.com/publications/) - Publications: Articles in Byline Times, UK in a Changing Europe, Encompass, Conservative European Forum. Briefing papers: trade, WTO, ‘no deal’. Clips from LBC. - [Search Results](https://brexitfactbase.com/archive-of-updates/) - Search results from Brexit FactBase. - [Privacy notice](https://brexitfactbase.com/privacy/) - Privacy notice. Definitions and interpretation. Contact details. Types of Data collected. How we use your Data. Your Data rights. Security. Cookies. Etc. - [Migrant workers/sectors](https://brexitfactbase.com/6-immigration/migrant-workers-and-sectors/) - Migrant workers/sectors. Pre-Brexit labour market position. Sectors dependent on EU workers. Post-Brexit labour market position. EU and non-EU jobs by sector. - [Other trade impacts](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-2-trade/other-brexit-trade-impacts/) - Other trade impacts: rollover trade deals, leaving EU VAT area, new border controls, red tape for traders, UK Global Tariff, civil service trade capability. - [UK trade](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-2-trade/uk-trade/) - UK trade. Comprehensive analysis: exports, imports, balances for goods, services, EU/non-EU. Trade trends. Importance of gravity. Top trade partners, categories - [Intro to expected impacts](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-impact-assessment/introduction/) - Intro to expected impacts. Introduction to what government knew (or should have known) of expected impacts of Brexit at time of the referendum and soon after. - [Interactive tools](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-2-trade/interactive-tools/) - Interactive tools. ONS tools to interrogate 2025 trade data for goods. Separate tools for trade, exports, imports. Interrogate by partner country, commodity. - [2. Sovereignty and law](https://brexitfactbase.com/2-sovereignty-and-law/) - Sovereignty and law: sovereignty vs power & influence. Distinction between EU and national competences. Role of CJEU. Cameron renegotiation. Impact of Brexit. - [Brexit impact](https://brexitfactbase.com/4-economic-context/brexit-impact/) - Brexit impact. Trend in GDP growth, economic impact, trade openness vs G7. Consensus view: Brexit has been harmful-estimates impact vary from ~4% to ~8% of GDP. - [4. Economic context](https://brexitfactbase.com/4-economic-context/) - Economic context: UK global & European rankings; trends (growth, employment, productivity, wages etc); why trade matters.trade openness, Brexit economic impacts - [Global economic context](https://brexitfactbase.com/4-economic-context/global-overview/) - Global economic context. IMF outlook for 2026 & 2027 - global and UK. Global overview, GDP rankings (both nominal & PPP), PPP GDP per capita, income inequality - [FDI - UK trends & Brexit impact](https://brexitfactbase.com/7-investment/fdi-uk-trends/) - FDI - UK trends. What have been the trends in inward FDI to the UK and by sector? What has been the Brexit impact on inflows and the UK’s stock of FDI? - [Gross fixed capital formation](https://brexitfactbase.com/7-investment/gross-fixed-capital-formation/) - Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). Definition and GDP impacts. The UK is a low investment nation. Brexit impact on UK investment. - [H. Migration statistics](https://brexitfactbase.com/appendices/h-migration-statistics/) - Table H.1: Long-term international migration 2012 to 2025 (‘000s, year to December) [table id=42 /] Source: ONS, Long-term international migration statistics, May 2026 - [7. Investment](https://brexitfactbase.com/7-investment/) - UK investment rate vs other countries. Business investment trends. Foreign Direct Investment: global & UK trends. Freeports & limited benefits. Brexit impacts - [Freeports and their Brexit impact](https://brexitfactbase.com/7-investment/freeports/) - Freeports and Brexit impact. Introduction. Freeports. UK Enterprise Zones. UK Investment Zones. EU rules. Post-Brexit impact. - [5.2 UK trade and Brexit impact](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-2-trade/) - UK trade: goods & services; EU & non-EU; top partners & sectors. UK-EU trade: trends; import-export links. Interactive tools. Brexit & TCA impacts on trade,SMEs - [Overall trade impact](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-2-trade/brexit-impact-quantitative/) - Overall trade impact of Brexit. Trend since 2015 and comparison of 2024 vs 2018 baseline. Scale of the overall trade impact vs G7. Benefits of trade deals. - [TCA impact on services](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-2-trade/how-brexit-impacts-services/) - TCA impact on services trade includes: loss of market access, loss of passporting for financial services and loss of recognition for professional qualifications - [Impact on SMEs](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-2-trade/impact-on-smes/) - Impact on SMEs. Brexit had a major impact on SMEs trading with the EU. Overview of impacts. Top challenges for SMEs. Fewer SMEs now trade with the EU. - [Brexit vote - right or wrong?](https://brexitfactbase.com/17-opinions-of-brexit/hindsight-was-brexit-vote-right-or-wrong/) - Brexit vote - right or wrong? Trend of opinion in hindsight from 2016 to 2026. Analysis in Jan 2025 of results based on age, referendum vote & party vote in GE. - [Importance of the EU issue](https://brexitfactbase.com/17-opinions-of-brexit/importance-of-eu-as-an-issue/) - Importance of the EU issue. Trend 2015 to 2025 in the top five key issues for British adults. Trend 1999 to 2025 of how many see EU/Europe/Brexit as a top issue - [Attitudes to rejoining the EU](https://brexitfactbase.com/17-opinions-of-brexit/current-attitudes-to-rejoining/) - Attitudes to rejoining the EU. Polls show significant support for rejoining the EU & rea closer UK-EU relationship. There is also support for Freedom of Movement. - [Expectations post-referendum](https://brexitfactbase.com/17-opinions-of-brexit/voter-expectation-after-referendum/) - Expectations post-referendum: In July 2016 ComRes conducted a poll for the BBC that looked at opinions on the single market, immigration, economy and rejoining. - [Opinions pre-referendum](https://brexitfactbase.com/17-opinions-of-brexit/voter-opinion-before-referendum/) - Opinions pre-referendum come from Ashcroft Polls who looked in detail at voter opinions just before the Brexit referendum in June 2016…. - [17. Current opinions of Brexit](https://brexitfactbase.com/17-opinions-of-brexit/) - Current opinions of Brexit: Brexit – right/wrong? How's Brexit going? Attitudes to rejoining the EU. Opinions before and expectations after referendum. - [Views on success of Brexit](https://brexitfactbase.com/17-opinions-of-brexit/how-is-brexit-going/) - Views on success of Brexit. When asked ‘How is Brexit going?’, half of Britons think Brexit has been more a failure than success, including 28% of Leave voters - [About Brexit FactBase](https://brexitfactbase.com/about/) - About Brexit FactBase: Richard Barfield; acknowledgements; top twenty sources, three recommended books; RBAS - Richard Barfield Advisory Services Limited. - [6. Immigration](https://brexitfactbase.com/6-immigration/) - UK need for immigration. Immigration trends. Foreign nationals in UK vs other countries. Freedom of movement defined. Contribution to the economy. Brexit impact - [UK immigration trends](https://brexitfactbase.com/6-immigration/long-term-immigration-trends/) - UK immigration trends and net migration pre- & post-Brexit. Public perceptions of net migration. Trends for EU, non-EU & British plus reasons for immigration - [Foreign nationals in UK](https://brexitfactbase.com/6-immigration/foreign-nationals-in-the-uk/) - International comparisons The UK has experienced broadly similar levels of migration compared to other high-income countries, on average, over the past few decades (see Figure 6.2). Migration levels fluctuate from year to year, but over the long run, the size of the foreign-born population as a percentage of the population is a good indicator of - [Why does UK need immigration?](https://brexitfactbase.com/6-immigration/why-does-uk-need-immigration/) - Why does UK need immigration? Aging population leads to labour shortages: workers needed to support economic growth. Alternatives take years (eg pension age) - [FDI - global trends](https://brexitfactbase.com/7-investment/foreign-direct-investment/) - FDI - global trends. What does FDI mean? Global trend 2020 - 2024. Recent global FDI trend: 2024 vs 2023. Global rankings 2023 - inward FDI stock; FDI inflows. - [UK-EU trade options](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-trade/uk-eu-trade-options/) - UK-EU trade options. EU preferential trade arrangements. UK red lines. EEA-EFTA. EU membership. Single Market. Union Customs Code. EU VAT area. - [TCA review and UK-EU reset](https://brexitfactbase.com/16-eu-uk-agreement/looking-to-the-future/) - TCA review, UK-EU reset, status of negotiations, Labour’s reset in context, Blueprint of recommendations - [EU history](https://brexitfactbase.com/1-what-is-the-eu/eu-history/) - EU history: founding principles and joiners, European flag, UK accession and referendum, EU treaties - [Healthcare](https://brexitfactbase.com/10-education-science-and-healthcare/healthcare/) - Healthcare: Pre-Brexit situation. Benefits of EU membership. Clinical trials & market access. Health spend:UK’s EU ranking. Expected and actual Brexit impacts. - [Post-Brexit immigration system](https://brexitfactbase.com/6-immigration/brexit-impact/) - Post-Brexit immigration system: government White Paper 2018, EU settlement system, post-Brexit immigration system, refugees & asylum, Labour government changes. - [Brexit impact on immigration](https://brexitfactbase.com/6-immigration/brexit-impact-2/) - What was the expected Brexit impact on immigration and what actually happened? Expected impacts on economy and public finances, OBR view and post-Brexit effects - [EU plan and budget](https://brexitfactbase.com/3-eu-budget-and-uk-contribution/eu-plan-and-budget/) - Multi-annual financial framework. Budget accountability and control. Member-state contributions compared. - [Science and research](https://brexitfactbase.com/10-education-science-and-healthcare/science-and-research/) - Benefits of EU to UK science. Brexit impact: four major losses to UK science. Royal Society aspirations post-Brexit. Rejoining Horizon Europe. - [Higher education](https://brexitfactbase.com/10-education-science-and-healthcare/higher-education/) - Pre-Brexit position of UK’s world-class higher education and benefits of Erasmus+. Brexit impact and rejoining Erasmus+ announced in December 2025. - [Speaking](https://brexitfactbase.com/speaking/) - Conferences and media. Contact details. I have spoken on radio as a guest (eg on LBC, TalkRadio). I am also an experienced conference speaker and presenter. - [Marine Conservation Society view](https://brexitfactbase.com/9-environment-and-climate-change/marine-conservation-society-view/) - The Marine Conservation Society view on the potential impact of Brexit. Pre-Brexit situation. MCS input to government. Specific marine conservation actions - [Friends of the Earth view](https://brexitfactbase.com/9-environment-and-climate-change/friends-of-the-earths-view/) - Current situation Positive benefit of EU Friends of the Earth believe that in the field of environmental policy, the EU has had an overwhelmingly positive effect. Through EU membership the UK government has had to put in place a host of policies with strict, legally-binding targets. It also has to provide regular, publicly-available reports on its performance - [Expected Brexit impacts](https://brexitfactbase.com/12-euratom/brexit-impact/) - The expected Brexit impacts of leaving Euratom included major disruption to the nuclear fuel cycle ‘No deal’ would have disrupted the supply of medical isotopes - [Deep dive on medical isotopes](https://brexitfactbase.com/12-euratom/deep-dive-on-medical-isotopes/) - Deep dive on medical isotopes Medical isotopes are important for diagnosis, the treatment of cancer, and research: medical scanners use the radiation they emit to produce images; cancer therapies use isotopes to damage harmful cells; radioisotopes are an important tool for biomedical research. In the UK, there are around 700,000 nuclear medicine procedures each year, - [Euratom and its role](https://brexitfactbase.com/12-euratom/current-situation/) - What Euratom does. Importance of Euratom to UK. - [UK contribution vs EU member benefits](https://brexitfactbase.com/3-eu-budget-and-uk-contribution/uk-contribution-and-benefits/) - UK contribution vs EU member benefits. UK contribution for 2019 & proportion of public expenditure; ONS criticism of Vote Leave; economic benefit of being in EU - [3. EU budget and UK contribution](https://brexitfactbase.com/3-eu-budget-and-uk-contribution/) - EU budget and UK contribution. EU plan 2014-20. Member and UK contributions; UK funds received from EU. Cost vs economic benefits. Brexit financial settlement. - [Global trends](https://brexitfactbase.com/11-defence-and-security/global-trends/) - Global trends in defence: trends in global defence spending, defence expenditure in 2024, EU & NATO members, EU & NATO defence spending, scale of armed forces - [12. Euratom](https://brexitfactbase.com/12-euratom/) - Role of Euratom; UK and nuclear; UL left Euratom on 31 January 2020; expected Brexit impacts of leaving Euratom; post-Brexit position - [Contribution to the economy](https://brexitfactbase.com/6-immigration/contribution-to-economy/) - Contribution to the economy of EEA migration. Migration Adv. Cmtee. report. Impact on public services. Impact on wages. Impact on public finances. HMRC analysis - [Government assessment](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-impact-assessment/governments-assessment/) - Government assessment of Brexit GDP impact. DExEU analysis of component impacts on GDP (trade effects and others). Impact on jobs, income and household income - [Trade arrangements](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-trade/trade-arrangements/) - [5.1 Global trade and arrangements](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-trade/) - Global trade trends; UK global ranking. Preferential trade arrangements (WTO, FTA, customs union etc) & trade barriers; MRAs & equivalence. UK-EU trade options - [EU decisions and the Commission](https://brexitfactbase.com/1-what-is-the-eu/eu-decision-making-and-the-commission/) - EU decision-making In limited areas defined by treaty, EU institutions can enforce laws, once collectively approved, on all the member states. The Council of Ministers (ministerial representatives from the 27 EU governments) and the European Parliament amend and pass EU laws, which the Commission proposes. When people talk about ‘unelected bureaucrats in Brussels’, they usually - [Accession process](https://brexitfactbase.com/1-what-is-the-eu/accession-process/) - Countries in the accession process. The five stages of accession. How long does it take? - [Regulatory divergence since Brexit](https://brexitfactbase.com/2-sovereignty-and-law/regulatory-divergence-since-brexit/) - Regulatory divergence since Brexit has not been as great as promised. Level playing field, pro-alignment stance, AI, digital, data, financial services. - [Post-Brexit divergence](https://brexitfactbase.com/9-environment-and-climate-change/post-brexit-divergence/) - There’s been notable post-Brexit divergence on environment and climate change. While EU has strengthened green regulation, UK has not followed or relaxed rules. - [14. Transition period negotiations](https://brexitfactbase.com/14-transition-period-negotiations/) - Transition period negotiations. EU/UK approaches, timeline. UK in transition period. Implementing WA. Economic/security partnership. Ratification/implementation - [EU trade reform agenda](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-trade/eu-trade-reform-agenda/) - The EU trade reform agenda since the UK left in 2021 focuses on the Single Market and the Customs Union. - [9. Environment and climate change](https://brexitfactbase.com/9-environment-and-climate-change/) - Implications of Brexit for environment and climate change, drawing mainly on the expert views of Friends of the Earth and the Marine Conservation Society. - [Brexit and the environment](https://brexitfactbase.com/9-environment-and-climate-change/overview/) - Impact of EU membership The UK’s EU membership has had a fundamental impact on UK environmental legislation. UK climate change policy has also become increasingly enmeshed in EU policy. EU environmental law includes areas such as nature and biodiversity, waste and recycling, air quality and chemicals regulation. The EU’s climate action measures include emissions trading, - [Non-trade agreements](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-trade/non-trade-agreements/) - Non-trade agreements are also critical to the UK’s relationships with other countries. By law, the UK was excluded from all bilateral agreements with the EU on 1 January 2021. In early 2019, the EU’s Treaties database listed 1,261 international agreements to which the EU is party in a mixture of bilateral and multilateral treaties. Analysis - [Introduction](https://brexitfactbase.com/introduction/) - Introduction to the 17 topics of Brexit FactBase from What is the EU? through to Current Opinions of Brexit and supporting publications. - [Terms and conditions of use](https://brexitfactbase.com/terms-and-conditions/) - Terms and conditions of use for brexitfactbase.com - [Support this website](https://brexitfactbase.com/support-this-website/) - Support this website. Brexit FactBase is independent & takes time & resources to maintain & update. Help cover running costs with a one-off or monthly donation. - [Brexit impact on sovereignty](https://brexitfactbase.com/2-sovereignty-and-law/brexit-impact/) - Brexit impact on sovereignty was limited because UK was sovereign as an EU member but chose to share it to gain benefits. Brexit reduced UK power and influence. - [Brexit implications](https://brexitfactbase.com/11-defence-and-security/brexit-implications/) - Brexit implications for defence and security. UK-EU post-Brexit relationship. EU defence developments. Conclusion. - [10. Education, science and healthcare](https://brexitfactbase.com/10-education-science-and-healthcare/) - Pre- and post-Brexit assessments of higher education, science and healthcare. Erasmus+ Horizon Europe - [EU defence](https://brexitfactbase.com/11-defence-and-security/eu-defence/) - EU defence: EU & NATO, Common Security & Defence Policy, Strategic Compass, Permanent Structured Cooperation, European Defence Fund, Security Action for Europe - [11. Defence and security](https://brexitfactbase.com/11-defence-and-security/) - Overview of defence and security threats leading into implications of Brexit for UK defence and security. - [Impacts on citizens and security](https://brexitfactbase.com/15-no-deal/non-trade-impacts/) - Impacts on citizens and security: ‘no deal’ would affect UK citizens travelling to EU and those resident in EU. ‘No deal’ would make life easier for criminals. - [No-deal impacts on trade](https://brexitfactbase.com/15-no-deal/trade-impacts/) - Introduction Many of the no-deal impacts on trade from leaving the EU under 'no deal’ would have been the same as with an FTA. The big difference is that an FTA removes most tariffs and quotas. However the non-tariff trade barriers under an FTA remain almost the same as under ‘no deal’. For details, see - [Scope of EU/UK partnership](https://brexitfactbase.com/14-transition-period-negotiations/future-uk-eu-partnership/) - Scope of the agreement The UK and the EU were negotiating a single comprehensive partnership agreement, based on the Political Declaration of 2019 (see below). The scope of EU/UK partnership covered five main components: Institutional arrangements Economic partnership Level playing field Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Movement of citizens Security partnership Police and judicial cooperation Foreign, security - [Security](https://brexitfactbase.com/11-defence-and-security/security/) - Security; EU-level security cooperation. Uk aspirations. Brexit impact. - [Threats to security](https://brexitfactbase.com/11-defence-and-security/defence-and-security-threats/) - Threats to defence & security. EU & UK views: Russia, China, cyber, climate, extremism, pandemics, terrorism, erosion of international norms, threats to commons - [Advantages of an FTA](https://brexitfactbase.com/15-no-deal/advantages-of-fta-over-no-deal/) - Advantages of an FTA over ‘no deal’. Further advantages of the TCA over a basic FTA. - [Preparation and readiness](https://brexitfactbase.com/15-no-deal/preparation-and-readiness/) - Preparation and readiness - 2020 There was overwhelming evidence that Business and government lacked preparation for 'no deal' by 31 December 2020: Separate assessments from National Audit Office, Institute of Directors, Cabinet Office and the Institute for Government laid out the unpreparedness of the UK. Bank of England’s Decision Maker Panel survey for October reported - [Economic partnership](https://brexitfactbase.com/14-transition-period-negotiations/economic-partnership/) - Level playing field The Political Declaration pledged a level playing field (LPF) to ensure open and fair competition. The EU had set the LPF provisions as a pre-condition for the Free Trade Agreement (FTA), because the UK is a close neighbour and a large economy with deep trade connections. Although LPF terms appear in other - [Security partnership](https://brexitfactbase.com/14-transition-period-negotiations/security-partnership/) - Security partnership: security and defence; data adequacy. - [Implementing the WA](https://brexitfactbase.com/14-transition-period-negotiations/implementing-withdrawal-agreement/) - Implementing the WA - the Withdrawal Agreement. Citizens’ rights. Northern Ireland Protocol. Key events in 2020. - [Timeline and key events](https://brexitfactbase.com/14-transition-period-negotiations/timeline-and-key-events/) - Original timeline The original partnership timeline to negotiate the new EU/UK relationship (see Figure 14.1) reflected the EU’s envisaged milestones in the Withdrawal Agreement. Beginning on 1 February and ending on 31 December 2020, the timeline included two months for parliamentary approvals and member-state ratification. This meant that the time available for negotiation was only - [EU approach](https://brexitfactbase.com/14-transition-period-negotiations/eu-approach/) - EU approach: EU ambitions, key players and structure of negotiations. The role of the UK Task Force(UKTF) - [Introduction](https://brexitfactbase.com/14-transition-period-negotiations/introduction/) - Introduction to the transition-period negotiations. - [Johnson period (Phase 2)](https://brexitfactbase.com/13-negotiations-to-31-january-2020/uk-approach-johnson-period/) - The Johnson period of the Phase 2 negotiations. Phase 2 finalised details of the WA and agreed the principles for the future UK-EU relationship. - [May period (Phase 2)](https://brexitfactbase.com/13-negotiations-to-31-january-2020/uk-approach-may-period-phase-2/) - This section describes the sequence of key events for the May period (Phase 2) of Brexit negotiations. The period ended with her resignation on 7 June 2019. - [13. Negotiations to 31 January 2020](https://brexitfactbase.com/13-negotiations-to-31-january-2020/) - Negotiations to 31 January 2020. EU approach. Key UK and EU players. May periods (Phases 1 and 2). Phase 1 agreement. Johnson period. Northern Ireland Protocol - [UK and EU regulation](https://brexitfactbase.com/2-sovereignty-and-law/regulation/) - UK level of regulation Pre-Brexit, despite having UK and EU regulation, Britain had one of the most lightly-regulated economies in the OECD. The National Audit Office published a Short Guide to Regulation in 2017, which provided a concise summary of regulation in the UK. The NAO identified 90 regulatory bodies in the UK and 34 EU - [European Court of Justice](https://brexitfactbase.com/2-sovereignty-and-law/european-court-of-justice/) - EU courts The European Court of Justice, or the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), is the supreme judicial authority on EU law, it involves three separate courts: Court of Justice comprises one judge from each EU country plus 11 Advocates General. The number of judges in the Court of Justice is set - [UK approach](https://brexitfactbase.com/14-transition-period-negotiations/uk-approach/) - UK objectives In contrast to the EU approach, the UK approach centred on political speeches by Johnson at Greenwich on 3 February 2020 and Frost at Brussels on 17 February 2020 to outline the government’s opening position. In addition, the Prime Minister provided a written statement to Parliament on 3 February 2020 which outlined its - [Appendices](https://brexitfactbase.com/appendices/) - Appendices on: Referendum analysis - SME case studies - TCA contents - Chequers proposals - Withdrawal Agreement - Political Declaration - Migration statistics - [C. TCA contents page](https://brexitfactbase.com/appendices/e-trade-and-cooperation-agreement/) - The TCA contents page shows the breadth of the TCA’s coverage of the main document. - [B. SME case studies](https://brexitfactbase.com/appendices/d-brexit-sme-case-studies/) - Three SME case studies report interviews with owners/directors from 2018, who discuss the expected impact of Brexit on their businesses. - [EU approach](https://brexitfactbase.com/13-negotiations-to-31-january-2020/eu-approach/) - Key players Guy Verhofstadt, lead negotiator for EU Parliament Michel Barnier Lead negotiator for European Commission Sabine Weyand Deputy negotiator for EC The EU approach involved a supporting team which included: François Arbault, focused on the movement of goods Philippe Bertrand, specialist on the Brexit bill Georg Emil Riekeles, relations between Commission and other EU - [May period (Phase 1)](https://brexitfactbase.com/13-negotiations-to-31-january-2020/may-period/) - This section covers Phase 1 of the negotiations up to December 2017, led by Theresa May. It lays out the key events in date order with limited commentary, based principally on the House of Commons Library’s record. For a fuller description of what happened during an intense and exceptional period for British politics, please refer - [15. No deal](https://brexitfactbase.com/15-no-deal/) - Overview, impacts on citizens, security, trade. Preparation & readiness. Operation Yellowhammer - government’s contingency planning. 'No deal’ versus FTA or TCA - [Sectors - overview](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-2-expected-impacts-sectors-and-regions/industry-sectors/) - This page provides an overview of expected impacts of Brexit on UK industry sectors from the government assessment & three comprehensive non-government studies - [UK regions](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-2-expected-impacts-sectors-and-regions/regions/) - Expected Brexit impact on UK regions. Provisional view. Limits of trade-flow analysis.Trade glows and labour income. Regions expected to be vulnerable to Brexit - [Fishing](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-2-expected-impacts-sectors-and-regions/fishing/) - Fishing: pre-Brexit position and expected impact of Brexit. - [1. What is the EU?](https://brexitfactbase.com/1-what-is-the-eu/) - Learn about EU history, institutions, presidents, MEPs and influence, separate European Court of Human Rights, UK influence, and what people think of the EU. - [8.2 Expected impacts - sectors and regions](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-2-expected-impacts-sectors-and-regions/) - Pre-Brexit expected Brexit impacts on sectors, regions. Sectors covered: agriculture & food, financial & professional services, manufacturing, aviation, fishing - [8.1 Expected Brexit impacts - overview](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-impact-assessment/) - Overview of pre-Brexit expected impacts of Brexit on UK economy & EU. Trade, immigration, investment etc. Government view, economists’ views & Brexit vs Covid. - [Preference Center](https://brexitfactbase.com/gh/) - [Covid-19 & Brexit impacts](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-impact-assessment/expected-impacts-of-covid-19-and-brexit/) - The double whammy Economists had to assess the expected impacts of Covid-19 with Brexit. Despite the uncertainties involved, in general, this was seen as a double whammy, because the sectors badly hit by Covid-19 were different to those badly hit by Brexit. Covid-19 affected businesses that provided face-to-face services such as accommodation, food services, transport - [UK economic trends](https://brexitfactbase.com/4-economic-context/uk-economy/) - Economic trends: principal industry sectors, output, business activity, interest rates, FX rates, inflation, productivity, employment, inactivity, real wages. - [Global trade](https://brexitfactbase.com/5-trade/world-trade/) - Global trade growth. Value of global trade. Main trade players and first partners. Trend in shares of world trade for US, China, EU, UK, Japan. Trade openness. - [Post-Brexit position](https://brexitfactbase.com/12-euratom/post-brexit-position/) - The post-Brexit position: Initial government response to Brexit in 2018; the UK-EU Nuclear Cooperation Agreement that forms part of the TCA package. - [Overview of ‘no deal'](https://brexitfactbase.com/15-no-deal/overview/) - ’No deal’ defined ‘No deal’ meant the failure by the EU and the UK to conclude a UK-EU partnership agreement by 11pm GMT on 31 December 2020. 'No deal' would have created the highest barriers and frictions affecting many areas, not just trade. This section describes what was expected in 2020 with ‘no deal’. The - [Transition period](https://brexitfactbase.com/14-transition-period-negotiations/transition-period/) - Status of UK The transition period began on 1 February 2020, when the UK was no longer an EU Member State, and would run to 31 December 2020. As a result, the EU and UK only had eleven months to agree a new partnership, based on the Political Declaration of October 2019. In the WA, - [G. Negotiation papers](https://brexitfactbase.com/appendices/g-negotiation-papers/) - Negotiation papers - [Agriculture and food](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-2-expected-impacts-sectors-and-regions/agriculture-and-food/) - Agriculture and food: pre-Brexit position and expected impact of Brexit. - [Phase 1 agreement](https://brexitfactbase.com/13-negotiations-to-31-january-2020/phase-1-agreement/) - The Phase 1 agreement of the Brexit negotiations meant that the UK and the EU had agreed in principle: EU citizens EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the rest of the EU have the right to stay. Rights of their children and those of partners in existing "durable relationships" are also guaranteed. - [Operation Yellowhammer](https://brexitfactbase.com/15-no-deal/yellowhammer/) - What was Yellowhammer? Risk areas and planning assumptions. Detailed implications - [F. Political Declaration](https://brexitfactbase.com/appendices/e-political-declaration/) - Political Declaration The Political Declaration (27 pages) was not legally-binding. It provided directional guidance to the long and complex negotiations that would begin when the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020. It was a vague and aspirational document, which meant that it gave little certainty about the UK's future arrangements with the EU. - [E. Withdrawal Agreement](https://brexitfactbase.com/appendices/f-withdrawal-agreement-and-political-declaration/) - Overview On 17 October 2019, the UK and the EU agreed the final draft Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration. The Withdrawal Agreement was ratified and entered into force on 31 January 2020. On 23 January 2020, Parliament passed the Withdrawal Agreement Act, which implemented the agreement in UK law. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) confirms the - [D. Chequers White Paper](https://brexitfactbase.com/appendices/g-chequers-proposals/) - The Chequers White Paper ('The future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union’), of 12 July 2018, described the UK Government's proposals for its future relationship with the EU. This was first time since the referendum vote in June 2016, that the government set out its proposals. The White Paper’s ninety pages laid out more - [Expected impact on the EU](https://brexitfactbase.com/8-impact-assessment/eu-impact/) - In March 2017, the European Commission prepared an assessment for the European Parliament of the economic impact of Brexit on both the UK and the EU. The assessment based its findings on many existing independent studies. This section is based on the Commission’s report and Birmingham University’s study into the exposures to Brexit on both - [Ratification and implementation](https://brexitfactbase.com/14-transition-period-negotiations/ratification-and-implementation/) - Ratification If the negotiations solely focus on trade, the European Commission can argue that it has exclusive competence. This would mean that ratification is relatively simple and quick: only the European Council (the national leaders), and the European Parliament need to sign off on the deal. Indeed, at the Council, a non-mixed agreement could be decided - [UK sovereignty and EU law](https://brexitfactbase.com/2-sovereignty-and-law/sovereignty-and-eu-law/) - UK sovereignty “Whilst Parliament has remained sovereign throughout our membership of the EU, it has not always felt like that.” White Paper, Exit From Europe, Feb 2017 – page 13. The UK was a sovereign nation as an EU member. Sovereignty means a nation’s ability to take its own decisions and, if it wishes, reverse - [Why trade matters](https://brexitfactbase.com/4-economic-context/why-trade-matters/) - Role of trade Trade plays a critical role in the economy. Trade allows a country to specialise in producing and exporting goods and services where it has a comparative advantage, which enables it to import other goods and services that it produces less efficiently. International goods and services exports accounted for 31% of UK gross ## Categories - [News](https://brexitfactbase.com/category/news/) - News News from Brexit FactBase – newsletters and articles. Newsletters from Brexit FactBase and recent articles by Richard Barfield published elsewhere.